On Monday, 16 AUG 21, on the 65th EPISODE, of New Paradigms with Sargis Sangari, Don Ulsch: Founder and Chief Analyst, The China 863 Analyst, & member of the senior advisory board of NEC-SE, and I discussed the Chinese Communist Party’s (# CCP’s) influence on #WashingtonDC, in #Afghanistan, with the #Taliban, and within the Stands.
We discussed the American losses in Afghanistan, the strategic victories for China, and the process by which China will use its American us dollars and American future #technologies and influence to control Afghanistan and the region. #DonUlsch laid out the counter to CCP’s vision for the globe and in the region by the U.S. future administration in the Middle East and about the Taliban.
We spoke about what should have been done before the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, according to China.
1. The U.S. should have accepted that China’s mission in the Middle East (and elsewhere, #SouthernAsia, #Africa) is to exploit developing nations–engaged in nation-building.
2. For China to successfully engage in nation-building, advanced technologies are required because what China will contribute, in addition to #infrastructure, is #eCommerce platforms. This mission is China’s 2035 plan: a 13,000 satellite constellation capable of providing Internet enabling services. These Chinese services will contribute to the local economies of target nations.
3. China is suffering from deficiencies in technology innovation. Therefore they must “acquire” advanced technologies through #cyberespionage, #equity investment, #merger and #acquisition, and international #jointventures. CCP has implemented a massive, widespread collection effort to help narrow the technology innovation gap.
4. The U.S. should have looked more closely at what China has been doing in the Middle East, particularly at the #China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a $62 billion infrastructure program. It also includes #telecommunications technology partnering, as well as #spacescience research. In addition, #Pakistan is sharing defense technology platform research with China.
5. China is working with the Taliban to ensure a smooth transition in Afghanistan–which benefits China. China is said to have reached an agreement with the Taliban not to harbor #Islamicjihadists intent on crossing the China-Afghanistan border in western China, home of the Muslim #Uyghurs. The jihadists are seeking to incite the Uyghurs, upsetting China’s domestic tranquility agenda. The Taliban has agreed with China’s request–in return for more power and economic support from China.
This process will result in investment in Afghanistan. China is not known to squander many opportunities. Also, while the Taliban does exert a certain level of independence, keeping its public distance from #Beijing, China’s massive corruption machine, coupled with Afghanistan’s lucrative #opioid business, it will ensure that despite any cultural, religious, or other differences the two powers may have, these issues will be resolved through nation-building economics.
6. The U.S. should have studied the impact of turning Afghanistan over to China and its net result. China will not waste the opportunity to increase the magnitude of its #China-bloc and brand its geopolitical imprimatur on Afghanistan in the form of a Taliban government.
7. Once this impact was understood, U.S. should have reached out to our #allies and uniformly agreed upon an approach that would mitigate the risk of China’s march on the Middle East. China’s eCommerce and #BeltandRoad strategy cannot succeed without advanced technologies. We could have worked with our allies to diminish the flow of technology intellectual property in its many forms, thereby increasing China’s cost of nation-building and constricting its access to the necessary technologies. Over several decades, it would have been possible to address the problem of China’s expansion through a combination of remedies.
8. It appears that nothing of this sort was even attempted in the U.S. rush to pull out of Afghanistan, missing the opportunity to curb China’s economic expansionist strategy.
9. How the U.S. bailed out of Afghanistan is not in our strategic interest, and we lost one more opportunity to collectively work to slow down China’s exploitation of developing nations and to coordinate our efforts with our key allies.
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Categories: Development, Governance, Security
