“Our readers know full well that the reality behind the trends about which we write are much more complex than what gets portrayed by the media. Keeping this in mind and you´ll appreciate this articles ability to suggest what is about to happen to the tenor of the discussions on border security issues and other linked topics during this up coming election year.  As we all know, what open source media reports should be viewed with a critical eye. There are stories, which are often written with a view to advance some kind of agenda. However, we use open media articles to show our readers how to conduct a link analysis to understand emerging patterns in today´s news reporting’s.”

When your enemy has the money for superior firepower-would you prefer second hand arms, the latest Anglo- German weapons or a sleek new AK 74M to outfit your forces?

On Aug. 28^th NEC-SE reported on the likelihood of an eventual IS-Mexican cartel-Italian Mafia Triad of convenience emerging stating: “IS surely wishes to advance its ‘aims by any expedient means possible and why not partner with Mexico and the Italian mafia to create lucrative channels of supply and human trafficking towards two mega targets-Rome & the US?”   This prediction was not based on idle speculation. Several months ago the Washington Times reported on findings announced by Judicial Watch regarding Islamic State allegedly using Juarez Drug Cartel coyotes to smuggle ISIS fighters into America near the areas of Santa Teresa and Sunland Park, New Mexico and also border areas between Acala and Fort Hancock, Texas due to being easy entry spots. Judicial Watch stated: “These specific areas were targeted for exploitation by ISIS because of their understaffed municipal and county police forces, and the relative safe-havens the areas provide for the unchecked large-scale drug smuggling that was already ongoing,”

Such a looming threat practically demands more international cooperation and support for Mexico rather than less. A recent article from the ever captivating Russian Times online entitled   Britain is fueling Mexico’s brutal drug war, anti-arms charity warns cited the indignation of Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT) furious about the invitation of a Mexican armed forces delegation to The 2015 DSEI arms fair, held at London’s ExCeL center. The opening paragraph fires off this volley: “Britain is fueling a deadly conflict in Mexico as human rights abuses become entrenched and the state’s drug war spirals out of control, anti-arms campaigners warn.” There is certainly another story to cover-the dilemma faced by Mexican weapons procurement officials who have to outfit their armed forces with the very best firearms they can get with existing budget restrictions.

As law enforcement professionals and soldiers know there are good men, bad men and those better termed sadists. In Mexico (as well as in many police forces worldwide) the latter abound in the drug cartels and, sadly, are also available for paid “dirty work” in the national police and in the armed forces. Witness the Mexican Police´s most unfortunate ambush of 49 students (6 of whom were killed during that operation) and the subsequent disappearance and death of the rest-25 of whom reportedly suffocated on the way to a dump in the Mexican town of Cocula where the survivors were massacred at the hands of hit men from the Guerreros Unidos drug cartel and their bodies burned with diesel fuel. The National Mexican police chiefs of Cocula and Iguala are currently at large. The Deputy Police Chief of Iguala, Guerrero state, Francisco Salgado Valladares, was apprehended in May of this year and as reported in Madrid´s EL PAIS-English edition is thought to be one of the “masterminds” behind the ambush and transfer of the students to assassins from the Guerreros Unidos Cartel from whom Salgado reportedly received a monthly salary of approximately $42,000. The students were headed to a protest in the Mexican town of Iguala in Guerrero state in Sept. of 2014 when the atrocity began to unfold. Those police involved may have used Heckler & Koch G-36 assault rifles imported from Germany according to news reports. Somewhat ironically, just opposite this Russian Times article concerning one of the worst recent cases of human rights abuses implicating government agents in the Western hemisphere, was an enthusiastic story with photo about the virtues of the new AK-74M Russian assault rifle slated to debut at the May 9^th Victory day parade. While the article that this NEC-SE posting decried Britain´s connection to Mexico’s drug war violence, the reader can´t help but see the irony to an article placed opposite it touting Russian arms offerings.

Alas be they good, bad or very bad police, their mission in Mexico remains the same of being at the ready to enter into dangerous confrontations involving supremely well armed cartel soldiers protecting their operations and their “executives” from capture. Those paid to take on the daunting task of neutralizing and capturing key leaders in criminal enterprises are facing organizations with vast procurement capabilities like one should expect given revenue ranging from $19 to $29 billion/year according to a 2013 US State Dept. memo. Traffickers, of course, are able to buy the very best weaponry that drug money can buy and could care less about NGO´s or activists unless they´re crossed. Thus the question to ask is if some Mexican police and soldiers are in fact, bad actors, should Britain then just simply refrain from selling weaponry to them as a sanction to force better behavior in the future? Mexico is a very capable nation and the proud country of origin of the impressive Mondragon rifle-arguably the world’s first light semi-automatic rifle. Nevertheless it relies on quality foreign made rifles and can’t be expected to rise to the security challenge with cheap used cast offs from neighboring countries should Western powers buckle to campaigns from pressure groups probably loathe to confront less indulgent individuals for their activism. Who benefits, then if Mexico is left to its own devices while its well bankrolled drug trafficking foes can not only purchase devastating fire power through corrupt arms merchants but also who show superb ingenuity at making home grown defense products? Among the latter one can count mini tanks or untraceable AR 15´s assembled in clandestine shops as Ioan Grillo has reported in his excellent article Mexican Cartels Invent Ingenious Weapons to Help Battle Government.  What will ensue if Mexico is sanctioned worldwide over this admittedly appalling violation of human rights that happened last year? What would the implications be for the rule of law in Mexico if worldwide weapons procurement sanctions were to be applied against America´s Southern neighbor? A final question is-whether Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT) will one day be viewed with contempt along with other other movements like the 1980´s nuclear freeze or “ban the neutron bomb” movements of the Cold War that were later proven to be connected to the Soviets? In the case of CAAT or similar activist groups de-crying bad governmental behavior in developing nations, is it not possible that they could they be well meaning dupes (or worse) for another group with deep pockets and a disruptive geo-political agenda?

Regarding disruption , the recent reported discovery by Mexican authorities of an IS cell in Mexico´s Anapra area near Ciudad Juarez in a zone dominated by the Juarez Cartel in Chihuahua State and a second one located near Puerto Palomas suggests that any breakdown in the ability of Mexican law enforcement to exert it´s power forcefully would not only encourage violent drug cartels but also could empower IS at America´s doorstep. How concerned is Campaign Against Arms Trade and other movements that hector Western governments to stop selling state of the art weapons to imperfect foreign military and police forces with the consequences when good cops and armed force units are out gunned?

The real culprit behind “drug fueled” violence in Mexico and the US is that the United States has ceased to practice what it preaches regarding sovereignty, security and responsible government. At America`s borders the US government is now egregiously derelict in its duty. The proof that America´s borders are not taken seriously is that there have been no less than 300 border incursions by Mexican Police and armed forces onto US territory since 2004. Drug traffickers know they can nearly enter the US at will, deliver their narcotics, receive duffle bags of cash payments; purchase the latest weapons and accessories from US sources and send them South. Everyone loses. Border insecurity means that cartels have been able to easily create hugely lucrative, massive and vertically integrated enterprises-hydra with many heads that particularly control heroin and other drugs from the fields in Latin America, transshipment points in Asia and down to the retail level at the street corner in small towns nationwide in the US. How has this happened? An open border appears to be the great enabler. Recent comments by US government officials tell the story. “Violent drug cartels help “every single illegal alien” cross the border between the U.S. and Mexico for a fee, and often the price is carrying a backpack full of heroin, according to US National Border Patrol Council, Laredo, Texas Chapter union president Hector Garza: “Every single illegal alien that comes into the country goes through the hands of a drug cartel,” even if the immigrant doesn’t want the help, said Hector Garza. Smugglers are so skilled that they have even resorted to counterfeiting truck signage or “cloning” to resemble oil and gas fracking trucks to make it easy to evade detection by narcotics police as they carry their stashes.

The results are staggering. In Montgomery County, Ohio with it´s 540,000 residents comprising the Dayton metro area there were 127 heroin overdose fatalities in 2014.

The field to US street corner pipeline down to even small municipalities depends on undocumented aliens able to enter at will and push the product to its points of sale. US law enforcement openly admits that vast stretches of Arizona less than 40 miles from Phoenix, AZ are in the hands of cartel forces. Those of you who read NECSE within the defense establishment who have sworn to defend our nation and uphold our constitution and who have seen brave US law enforcement staff killed or hurt as well as counterparts in Mexico standing tall and getting murdered know that the open border is lethal and internal decisions regarding non-enforcement of immigration laws puts one at odds with the oath. Finally, lest anyone entertain the naïve thought that Islamic State cannot threaten the US nor Mexico should realize that the latter country has no law prohibiting recruitment to commit terrorism performed via the internet as read in Mexico´s Universal. Thus, it was reported by the news media that a British citizen who married a Mexican national and became a Mexican citizen recently recruited 11 Mexicans and Americans and assisted their travel to Syria to fight with the Islamic State. Reportedly UK´s MI-6 in coordination with Mexico´s CISEN-roughly speaking Mexico´s version of America´s Federal Bureau of Investigation has been able to put a stop to his activities and is soon expected to extradite him. This operation, mentioned in Mexico´s Universal column, also uncovered the work of the apparent leader of a band of human smugglers, operating in the Tamaulipas area, and whose name is Antonio Sanchez Sanchez and who is a convert to Islam.

NEC-SE believes that it is likely that significant numbers of IS fighters have already penetrated the United States border with Mexico and that America is literally waiting to be the victim of either low cost, low intensity fatal attacks that absorb significant numbers of law enforcement staff (recall the John Allen Muhammad-Lee Boyd Malvo Beltway sniper attacks terror sniper spree) or devastating terrorist plots ala 9/11 but possibly on an even wider scale. Another grim possibility is that the former Muhammad-Malvo style operations could be replicated nationwide to wear down law enforcement and its ability to collect, compile, assess and share intelligence findings at a local, county, state and federal level and hence inhibit its ability to discern and share Intel concerning emerging threats that could be massive in scope. The 9/11/01 operations could pale in comparison to what’s ahead. Will common sense prevail regarding arms purchases for Mexican Authorities or must we all succumb to drug cartels, Islamic State and NGO´s thanks to weapons sanctions over an admittedly deplorable atrocity implicating some of Mexico´s Police?